Self-Publishing vs Traditional Publishing: 7 Questions That Reveal Which Path Is Right For You

And Why 99% Of Authors Shouldn’t Take Book Deals

So, you want to become an author?

Then chances are the big question you’re asking yourself is:

“Should I pursue a book deal? Or should I just self-publish?”

And by the end of this post, you will have your answer.

For context:

• I have self-published 10 books.

• I have sold tens of thousands of copies of those books around the world.

• I have built multiple 6, 7, and multi-7-figure writing-related businesses.

• I have ghostwritten for hundreds of company executives, venture capitalists, and even New York Times best-selling authors.

• And I have spent the past decade studying the book publishing industry (and its business models).

I want to be forthcoming that I am a much bigger supporter of self-publishing than traditional publishing.

HOWEVER… what I’m more concerned with is making sure writers are fully educated about the decision. (And at the end of this guide, I will tell you the 3 scenarios when I DO think taking a book deal is the right path forward—and the checklist I recommend using for making this decision.)

It has taken me a decade to piece this whole puzzle together, and I’d like to share it in public with you here.

So, if you’re unsure of whether self-publishing or traditional publishing is right for you, here are 7 questions you should ask yourself that will reveal the right answer:

Question #1: Do You Meet 1 Of The 5 Criteria For Landing A Lucrative Book Deal?

Let’s just level-set here to make sure we’re all on the same page.

In Non-Fiction, the average advance for a book is somewhere between $20,000 and $50,000.

In Fiction, it’s less. Usually $25,000 or below.

The only time authors receive an advance above $100,000 is if:

1. The writer has a giant audience on the Internet (hundreds of thousands of followers, large email list, etc.).

2. The writer is a celebrity.

3. The writer is friends with many celebrities/influencers and has a lot of money to throw at a potential book launch.

4. The writer is a noteworthy person in their industry possessing “irreplaceable knowledge.” (For example: a scientist in possession of breakthrough research, a professor at a university with insights gathered across a 15-30+ year career, etc.).

5. The writer is coming out of a renowned creative writing program (like the University of Iowa’s MFA program) and has won various literary awards.

The reason is because all of these “types of writers” have leverage—which is crucial when it comes to negotiating anything.

So, if you do not match 1 of the above 5 archetypes, you should immediately take the self-publishing road.

Because if not, and if you decide to press on pursuing a traditional book deal, then you should plan on the process of pitching agents and publishers to be very difficult. You should plan on getting low-balled on your advance. And most importantly, even if you do get a book deal and even if you take a low-ball offer, you should plan on being deprioritized relative to all the other authors they give book deals to that year (who meet 1 of the 5 criteria above).

And even if you DO meet this criteria…

Question #2: Why Do You Want To Become An Author?

There are 2 forms of status when it comes to being an author.

• The status of having written a book.

• The status of having written a book that was “chosen” by a publisher.

These are not the same form of status.

Technically, anyone who writes any amount of words between two flaps sold as a book on Amazon can call themselves an author. (The literary world hates this, and drinks heavily to cope with this new reality.) But some people don’t feel like they can call themselves an “author” unless they are “chosen” by one of the Big 5 publishers:

• Penguin Random House

• Hachette

• HarperCollins

• Macmillan

• Simon & Schuster

It’s a simple question, really. If you self-published a book that sold a million copies and made you $10,000,000, would you be happy? Or would you still envy the person on LinkedIn posting about how Penguin Random House will be publishing their book this fall?

If it’s the latter, then you need to acknowledge that your primary driver for wanting a book deal is approval. Not money. Not “calling yourself an author” (because you can accomplish that goal through self-publishing). What you really want is for an authority figure to tell you they’re proud of you—which is fine. But be honest about this with yourself, because what you will gain in approval and “industry status,” you will lose in financial upside.

So, if you just want to call yourself an author → self-publish. Congrats. Now you’re an author.

But if you want validation/approval and to be “crowned” an author by the publishing industry → continue on pursuing the book deal.

Question #3: Are You Writing A Top 5% Book?

Now, even if you want to be “crowned” an author by the legacy publishing industry, it’s still worth doing some napkin math so you can truly understand the pros & cons of taking a book deal.

Because, to you, your book is your masterpiece. Your life’s work. Your pride and joy.

But to a publisher, your book is just a line item in an excel spreadsheet titled: “Book Sales, Profitability, And Long-Term Upside.”

This is nearly identical to the way Venture Capital firms approach investing in startups:

• They invest in 100 startups.

• 90 of the startups they invest in fail.

• 5 of those startups become profitable companies and break even (or get acquired, are “base hits” and break-even, or provide a small return).

• And 5 of those companies generate hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars (and pay for the next 100 bets).

And a traditional publisher is no different.

• They invest in 100 books (by giving out “advances”).

• 90 of the books they invest in fail (they don’t earn out their advances).

• 5 of those books hit the “mid-list” (they earn out their advance and a little extra).

• And 5 of those books generate millions, hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars (and pay for the next 100 bets).

So, even if EMOTIONALLY you want a book deal, you should stress-test your desire by asking whether you are writing something that has Top 5% potential. Because, if not, what’s going to happen is the short-term approval (“HarperCollins picked me!”) is going to dissipate as soon as you realize your book doesn’t matter to the publisher anymore. You’re not a “winning bet” for them—and so you (and your book) don’t matter anymore.

But that’s a hard question to answer, right?

How do you know if your book has Top 5% potential?

Here’s a very concrete way of thinking about this, backed by data.

Question #4: Are You Writing A Personal Development Or Personal Finance Book?

In 2022, I co-wrote a book called Snow Leopard, about how to create (and dominate) your own category as a writer.

In that book, we analyzed the Top 500 (which came out to the Top 444, adjusting for duplicates) best-selling Non-Fiction business books of the past two decades—looking for patterns and key insights to reverse-engineer what makes a best-seller.

And if you want to become a successful, even somewhat mainstream Non-Fiction Writer, you will most likely be playing in one of the Big 7 Non-Fiction categories.

According to our research, the Big 7 are:

• Personal Development: Makes up 23% of best-selling Non-Fiction business titles, and generates 35% of the category’s revenue.

• Personal Finance: Makes up 25% of best-selling Non-Fiction business titles, and generates 19% of the category’s revenue.

• Insights/Thinking: Makes up 15% of best-selling Non-Fiction business titles, and generates 16% of the category’s revenue.

• Leadership: Makes up 13% of best-selling Non-Fiction business titles, and generates 15% of the category’s revenue.

• Case Study/Allegory: Makes up 11% of best-selling Non-Fiction business titles, and generates 9% of the category’s revenue.

• Functional Excellence: Makes up 8% of best-selling Non-Fiction business titles, and generates 6% of the category’s revenue.

• Relationships: Makes up 5% of best-selling Non-Fiction business titles, and generates 5% of the category’s revenue.

You should have two big takeaways from the above analysis.

The first should be that if you have aspirations for becoming a mainstream Non-Fiction Writer, then you should plan on writing books in one of these 7 overarching categories. Why? Because these 7 categories are what appeal to the widest number of readers. This choice alone increases your chances of success much more than “the quality of the writing.”

But the second takeaway should be that, regardless of topic, you should consider how you can write about that topic through a Personal Development or Personal Finance lens. The largest total addressable markets of Non-Fiction readers are people who want to improve themselves and people who want to make more money (or stop losing money).

Which means if you aren’t writing something you believe has Top 5% potential (aka: aren’t writing a Personal Development or Personal Finance book), you should consider self-publishing. You’ll make more money. (The fiction version of this is Genre Fiction > Literary Fiction. Genre is for “the masses.” Literary is for New York Elites.)

But if you really, truly believe what you’re writing has Top 5% potential (and have grounded your hypothesis in data), then go ahead and pursue the book deal.

Just think about the upside & downside, and long-term impact of the decision.

Which leads to…

Question #5: Are You OK Marketing A Book You Now Only Own 10% Of?

Quick recap:

• You fit 1 of the 5 archetypes where it makes sense to take a book deal (because you have some form of leverage and you have a good chance receiving a higher-than-normal advance).

• Being a “published author” means more to you than being an independently wealthy & successful self-published author.

• You firmly believe you are writing a Top 5% book.

• And you have data proving you are writing a Top 5% book (because you’re writing a Personal Development or Personal Finance book).

But what if you’re wrong?

Here’s what most writers don’t understand about the economics of a book deal. Like I said, the typical advance for a new writer is anywhere from $10,000 to $50,000. After that advance, you then get paid an 8-15% royalty for each book sold. But that’s not a very helpful way of thinking about it.

Instead, I encourage you to think about this “deal” in reverse:

For $10,000, the publisher is taking 85% of your startup.

You (the writer) are the CEO. Your book is your company/product. And the same way a VC firm invests money in a startup, a traditional publisher is “investing” money in your book. (Except, unlike the startup world where a typical fundraising round would mean giving up ~20% of the company, the publisher is taking almost the entire pie.)

Now, if you really think you’re sitting on the next Atomic Habits, and you’re getting a fat advance up-front, I understand the logic of wanting to sign with a publisher.

HOWEVER… for 99% of authors, this isn’t what happens. Their book, even if it meets all the above criteria, doesn’t warrant a big advance and doesn’t hit it big.

And now they’re left marketing a product they no longer own.

So, as a long-term question: if things DON’T go according to plan, are you going to be OK marketing a product you only own 8-15% of?

If no, self-publish.

If yes, continue on with the book deal.

Question #6: Why Does “Being In Bookstores” Matter So Much To You?

Now, whenever I get to about here in the logic line, most writers respond:

“Yea yea yea, but a publisher helps with distribution. They get you into bookstores.”

Unfortunately, most writers have no idea what this actually means. They just think part of “getting a book deal” means seeing their book in every bookstore around the world—which, if you’ve ever walked into a bookstore, you should know isn’t true.

Every bookstore doesn’t have “every book ever written.”

Instead, here’s what actually happens:

• Publisher gives out 100 advances that year to new authors. (Actually, just HarperCollins alone publishes ~10,000 new books each year, so wrap your head around that.)

• Publisher sends promo materials to bookstores/sellers of all their new titles.

• The titles they give the highest advances to ($$$) receive the most promotion to bookstores. The titles they give the lowest advances to ($) receive the least promotion to bookstores.

• Regardless, it’s the bookstores & sellers who decide which books they want to carry (not the publishers). The publisher can push and push but at the end of the day it’s not their decision.

• The way bookstores decide which books to carry is based on a) how much money the publisher is putting behind it (aka: their Top 5% of titles), b) the deal terms they have with that publisher (some have “minimums” in terms of number of copies they need to order) and c) how well this book starts selling in other markets in real-time.

Best-case scenario, your publisher is going to find a small handful of stores willing to sell your book. And if, and only IF your book starts selling will other bookstores consider taking it as inventory. (Which not only means your book needs to out-sell all the other titles coming out that year, but it also needs to start hitting similar sales metrics as previously published best-sellers.)

So, if you’re going to give up 85% ownership in your book just because “the publisher will help get it into bookstores,” it’s worth asking why that means so much to you.

For context: 70% of book sales now happen online (and growing). Only 30% of book sales happen in stores (and declining). A decade ago, these numbers were flipped: 70% in stores, 30% online.

Why are you chasing the declining distribution channel?

And again, if the answer is, “I don’t know… I’ve just… ever since I was a little kid with a dream of becoming a writer, I’ve always wanted to see my book in a bookstore….” that’s fine. But please, recognize you are making this decision for validation and approval and not what’s actually in your best interest as a writer who wants to have a long, successful, and lucrative career.

Question #7: Are You Prepared To Spend Your Entire Advance On Marketing?

At this point, it should be clear that for 99% of writers, taking a book deal makes absolutely zero sense.

• They don’t meet 1 of the 5 criteria for who benefits the most from book deals (the people most likely to receive outlandish advances) and have zero negotiating leverage.

• They aren’t writing a book with Top 5% sales potential.

• They aren’t writing a book in a large enough category (Personal Development or Personal Finance).

• They haven’t considered the long-term effects of taking a book deal, things not going according to plan, and then being stuck marketing a book they no longer own.

• They mistakenly think signing with a publisher guarantees their book will be placed in bookstores all around the country/world.

• And they mistakenly think “being in bookstores” is what drives the majority of sales and will solve all their marketing problems (which isn’t even close to true).

But this last question should really drive the point home.

Most writers think an advance is what they are getting paid to write their book.

Behhhhh. Wrong.

Your advance isn’t your profit. Your advance is your marketing budget.

(Meaning not only is the publisher taking 85% of your company, but they’re also expecting you to use the money they give you to market the product they now own.)

If you are not prepared to spend your entire advance on marketing, that’s a signal you don’t know which game you are playing. You think your advance is your compensation, and it’s not. Because in order for all the above to work out in your favor, and in order for your book to hit the sales metrics to get it into the Top 5% of your publisher’s portfolio, you need your book to sell and sell big. And who do you think is responsible for marketing your book?

Not your publisher.

YOU.

Which means you should only be taking a book deal if you are swinging for the fences, meet all the above criteria, and are prepared to spend your entire advance marketing your book.

Otherwise, you will make significantly more money self-publishing (and you will have far more creative freedom & autonomy over the trajectory of your career).

When To Take The Book Deal

Now, all of that said, I believe there are 3 scenarios where it’s worth taking a book deal.

• Scenario #1: You are only going to write 1 book in your entire life.

• Scenario #2: You want to swing for the fences and write the next Atomic Habits.

• Scenario #3: You want to hit the New York Times best-seller list, and are prepared to spend $250,000+ of your own money (and 6-12 months of your life pounding the pavement organizing all your own marketing efforts) to achieve that goal.

Let me add some color to each one, because the nuances here are important.

Scenario #1: You are only going to write 1 book in your entire life.

If you know you are only going to write 1 book in your life, and you have zero aspirations to build any of the other skills required to be a successful author, then sure, take the book deal. Because the economics of the deal don't matter to you.

Instead, optimize for status. Optimize for ease. And don’t bother learning all the other stuff.

However, if you have any interest at all in being a serial author (or even just a writer who contributes new insights & thinking to their industry over a long time horizon), then you should consider postponing this decision as long as you can. Because the more books you self-publish, and the larger your library grows, the more leverage you’re going to accumulate—meaning the moment you do decide to pursue a traditional book deal, you’re going to get a great deal and be able to maximize the opportunity.

Scenario #2: You want to swing for the fences and write the next Atomic Habits.

I have heard both James Clear (author of Atomic Habits) and Mark Manson (author of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fck*) say they don’t believe their books would have become the massive best-sellers they are today without the help of their publishers.

And I agree.

The publishing industry is a bit of a rigged game—and if you want to go fully down the rabbit hole, I encourage you to read the book Big Fiction by Dan Sinykin. It’s a dense but mind-blowing analysis of how the traditional publishing industry operates, and how publishers will “pick” authors to “make famous” (again, based on all the criteria I’ve touched on here).

In order for a book to really break through to the masses—meaning bookstores in major airports, being included in Oprah’s Book Club, etc.—you have to play ball and sign with a traditional publisher. You just do. Otherwise, you have very little chance of ever reaching this same altitude. (For example: the New York Times best-seller list doesn’t count self-published books. So even if your self-published book outsells Harry Potter, they aren’t going to include you. It’s a rigged game.)

Just remember… for every James Clear there are 1,000+ other writers who had the same aspiration, took the book deal, and then flopped.

So you have to walk into the book deal with open eyes about the risks, and have a firm understanding of WHY you’re taking the risk you are.

Scenario #3: You want to hit the New York Times best-seller list and are prepared to spend your entire advance (and then some) marketing your book.

Lastly, you should only take a book deal when you are swinging for the fences and are prepared to spend accordingly to make it happen.

I’ve met & ghostwritten for dozens and dozens of New York Times best-selling authors, and the number I hear over and over again is $250,000. That’s how much it costs, minimum, to get yourself on the right podcasts, and get featured in the right publications, and get mentioned by the right newsletters, etc., to make sure your book has enough visibility to hit the New York Times best-seller list (which is somewhere in the ballpark of 5,000 - 10,000+ copies in the first week).

If this sounds unfathomable, just take a look at the authors who frequent the NYT best-seller list. Most of them have lucrative businesses that fuel their book marketing efforts—and that’s not a coincidence.

Remember: it’s called the NYT best-SELLER list. Not the NYT best-quality list.

If you want to write a best “SELLER,” you better be prepared to spend to make it sell.

When To Take The Book Deal: Checklist

Let’s compress all this down.

When should you take a book deal?

• ✅ You want to swing for the fences.

• ✅ You want to hit the New York Times best-seller list.

• ✅ You are prepared to spend your entire advance marketing your book (earmark $250k+) to hit that goal.

• ✅ You meet 1 of the 5 criteria for getting a large enough advance to make sure your publisher actually cares about you (the bigger the advance, the more incentivized they are to help you—otherwise that’s a lot of money wasted for a negative ROI).

• ✅ You want to be able to call yourself a “published author” more than you actually want to make money.

• ✅ And you believe the book you are writing has Top 5% potential (and you are writing in a large enough category to warrant that hypothesis).

But we can boil this down to one very simple statement:

If you want to optimize for status (from calling yourself a “published author,” to maybe hitting the NYT best-seller list), go ahead and take the book deal. Money shouldn’t actually be part of the equation—because like I said, you should plan on spending your entire advance marketing your book at launch anyways (because the real goal is: “I am now a NYT best-selling author”).

However, if your goal is money, longevity, and long-term upside as a writer/author, you should self-publish.

When To Self-Publish: Checklist

• ✅ You are writing a niche book (a topic that doesn’t have massive mainstream appeal).

• ✅ You want the title of “author” without having to give up ownership/control.

• ✅ You don’t meet 1 of the 5 criteria for getting a large enough advance.

• ✅ You DO meet 1 of the 5 criteria but believe the marketing & distribution you bring to the table (your own audience/money) is greater than what the publisher will bring to the table.

• ✅ You plan on writing more than 1 book in your lifetime.

• ✅ You want to build a library of books that will pay you dividends over decades.

I want to end this by saying that I fully plan on taking a book deal at some point.

However, I am going to wait until I have pushed my self-published library as far as I can take it. I am going to wait until I have the most amount of leverage possible. And I am not going to sign a lifetime contract with an agent, or sign a multi-book deal with a publisher. I am going to sign 1 book, write a book that has the highest likelihood of reaching the masses, invest $250k+ in guaranteeing that book hits the New York Times best-seller list, collect my badge, and then go right back to self-publishing.

And after studying the publishing industry for the past decade, I would strongly encourage every other serious writer to consider doing the same.

And if you’d like to hear me walk through this full logic line, check out this podcast: